Drabek Still a Work in Progress

Kyle Drabek may be pitching better than ever, but his development will not be as easy as flipping a switch.

The 24-year-old righty is looking poised for a breakout 2012 season, throwing a 3.34 ERA through his first six starts with the Toronto Blue Jays. The media has been gushing about the progress made with his remedied stride toward the plate, even suggesting that the centrepiece of the Roy Halladay trade may still live up to his hype. While it would be fantastic if he were to fill his ace-potential shoes, there are signs in his first month of the year that he may still have some work to do.

Walking batters has been an issue for Drabek since he showed up in the Major Leagues, and he has done fairly well to control his pitches better this year. However, he has still issued 20 walks, the third most in baseball. There are stretches during his starts where he pounds the strike zone, and he is stellar when he does.

At times, though, especially as of late, he has slipped back into his old habits and allowed plenty of baserunners, as shown by his ugly 1.46 WHIP. He then has to face more batters, bloating his pitch count, shortening his outings. Because of this he has averaged less than six innings per start, while Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez all at or close to seven innings.

Still, he has managed to keep runs off the board. Drabek has been superb getting out of jams, holding opposing teams to a .133 batting average with runners in scoring position. His performance Saturday night against the Angels was a prime example: he got a couple clutch double play balls that kept Toronto in the game.

He has been a completely different pitcher with runners on. Contrast his .133 opponent average with runners in scoring position with a .284 average with nobody on. Even more telling are his home run numbers. He has conceded six long balls, tying him for eighth in the American League among starters. The thing is, all six were solo shots; not a single homer with a man on base.

These are very interesting numbers considering where he was last year. His tendancy was to lose his cool after making a couple bad pitches, and he would often get torched because of that. The lack of composure was the number one reason he did not last the year with the Blue Jays.

Fortunately, Drabek seems to have learned from that ordeal. His body language suggests that he is not letting his mistakes get to him the way they did in 2011. Watching him after four-pitch walks, you can tell he isn't happy, but instead of frustration, he shows determination to get out of the inning.

This is a huge step in the right direction; it is impossible to overstate how important it is for a young pitcher to control his emotions. That said, controlling his pitches remains a problem for Drabek, and it is now the biggest aspect of his game that is holding him back.

Although he has avoided the crooked numbers so far, it will be impossible to maintain a low ERA with a 1.46 WHIP. If he would pitch with the bases empty anywhere near as well as he has with the bases juiced, he would win a ton of games.

Of course, it never is as simple as it sounds. Unless he is the rare exception, he will be struggling all year to keep the ball in the strike zone, and in the ballpark. The good news is, if he can manage to figure it out in the end, 2012 could be the year Kyle Drabek becomes a real big league pitcher.

Schneider Changes Vancouver Long-Term

We have our best indication yet that Roberto Luongo is done in Vancouver, and this time in came straight from the horse’s mouth.

Luongo told the media last week that he would waive his no-trade clause if he was asked to by the Canucks management. He said he did not want to get in the way of what is best for the team, even if that means Cory Schneider taking over as the number one goaltender.

There has long been speculation that Luongo would ditched in favour of the younger Schneider, but it usually came from the same people spinning the Raymond-for-Nash rumours at the local bar. There was never any plausible reason to believe the Canucks would deal their star goalie.

Until the Kings series.

This year’s quarterfinal matchup against Los Angeles was nothing short of a disaster, the only bright spot being Cory Schneider, who took the net from Luongo in Game 3 and kept in for the rest of the series. That’s when talk really heated up.

Writer Jason Botchford became the latest to jump on the trade-Luongo wagon after Schneider earned back-to-back starts in Games 3 and 4. He wrote two days straight that this was a sign that the organization was moving Schneider into their long term plans.

In case you are unfamiliar with “Botch,” he is a sports reporter for The Province newspaper in Vancouver. He is one of the most respected hockey personalities in British Columbia, making frequent appearances on TSN to talk Canucks. It was one thing to have the local barber preaching this madness, reading it from Jason Botchford gave the story a shot of credibility.

In the following days, as Schneider continued his spectacular play, even Darren Dreger and Bob McKenzie were discussing the scenario on the TSN Panel. Speculating on where Luongo would go, and for how much, on national television, this armchair GM’s fantasy was actually taking shape in front of our eyes.

But even these brilliant minds could not answer the burning question: how are the Canucks going to get out of Luongo's contract? Fans were left to wonder about it until, of course, Luongo himself revealed that his no-trade clause will not be an issue.

With all this drama around Louie's rumoured departure, it is hard to imagine Gillis wanting to keep him around another year. Schneider says he deserves to start, Luongo is willing to make way, and Gillis gave the ambiguous "I'm not sure" when questioned about his goalie situation for next year. The fuse is already lit. It has to be assumed that Schneider will be Vancouver's number one in 2012/13.

That simple proposition raises all sorts of new concerns over the direction this team is headed. At present, there is not much separating the two 'keepers skill-wise, and after a suitable raise Schneider's salary cap hit will closer resemble Luongo's as well.

The real divide is the age gap. Luongo is 33, Schneider is 26. That's seven years of development for Cory. It is well documented that he is capable of turning into a world-beater in those seven years, while Luongo's play will be deteriorating. Choosing Schneider would clearly be a decision to get younger.

It raises an interesting point: if Vancouver wants to get younger in goal, are they going to do the same with the rest of the team? Schneider is likely a few years away from his prime, and he could remain a top-notch netminder until his mid-thirties, a decade from now. Do the Canucks want to make sure they are competitive during those years?

In just five years, Ryan Kesler will be 32 years old, while the Sedin twins will be 36. Not exactly elderly, but older than you would like the core of your team to be.

If you think you can see where this is going, not to worry; this is not one of those crazy, blow-everything-up-and-rebuild theories. Vancouver is still a strong contender for the Stanley Cup in the short-term; Cory Schneider in goal certainly does not hurt those chances. To squander such an opportunity would be nothing short of insane.

Having said that, what Schneider does do is lengthen Vancouver's Cup window. A strong goaltender can put even the sorriest rosters in the post-season. If the Canucks can maintain a talent level close to what they have today, they could wind up becoming perennial contenders.

Easier said than done right? Granted, it would not be a gimmie, but it is not as far a stretch as it first seems. The Canucks’ system is not bursting with superstars-to-be, but it is not as barren as most people would assume.

Chris Tanev jumps to mind as the strongest prospect Vancouver has, and he is certainly one of the most NHL-ready. For the last couple years he has made appearances on the Big Club showcasing his skating ability, defensive awareness, and coolness under pressure. He is a couple years away from being a solid NHL defenseman, but the Canucks can afford to be patient with him, which is the best possible situation for any raw talent.

Waiting in the wings are blueliners Kevin Connauton and Yann Sauve, who appear set to crack the lineup in the next couple years. Most evident though is the hole in the roster where Luc Bourdon should be, in small part because he would have been a terrific hockey player.

Offensively Jordan Schroeder, Nicklas Jensen, and Anton Rodin are all possible top-six guys, although they are a little bit further back in their development. Taking nothing away from these players, however, it is hard not to notice the absence of Cody Hodgson, who was dealt at the deadline, in this mix.

Since that trade there has been steady uproar of emotion, most of it questioning how Gillis could possibly let go of one of the most promising young stars in the game. Some of those questions have been answered by Gillis’ recent revelations of Hodgson’s “issues” in the recent media day. The kid Vancouver got back from Buffalo, Zack Kassian, should start to answer the rest of the critics very shortly.

Kassian is as elite a power forward prospect as there is. He undoubtedly has top-six stuff, and has drawn the lofty comparison to Milan Lucic. Still, most of British Columbia had never heard of him before, and his first couple months with the Canucks have done little to comfort the Vancouver faithful.

Before overreacting, remember that Kassian has managed to crack a very talented roster at the tender age of 21. He has struggled to make a consistent impact, but has shown flashes to suggest that he could be a very special player.

Compare that to Hodgson a year ago, who was trying to crack the roster at 21, struggling to make a consistent impact, but showing flashes to suggest he could be a very special player. Do you see where this is going?

When these two youngsters were swapped, fans expected Kassian to play at the level Hodgson had been. The expectations were simply unreasonable, so predictably there was disappointment when he could not meet them. We just need to be patient, Kassian will pay dividends in the near future, and, short of goalies, there is nothing more impactful than a massive, gritty forward who can put the puck in the net.

Even the forgotten piece of the trade, Marc-Andre Gragnani, could add some scoring punch from the back end if he lives up to the hype. Put it all together, and, while it isn’t Shangri-La, the farm system is set to provide reinforcements to the Show in the not-so-distant future.

They will be added to a group still in their early thirties that includes Ryan Kesler, Alex Edler, Dan Hamhuis, David Booth, and Chris Higgins. Not bad, but without the production from the Sedin twins, the Canucks will need find some more top-line scoring. It is too late to draft that kind help, so Vancouver will likely have to look to bring in players from elsewhere.

How will they do that? Have a look at the contracts that will expire in the next five years. Daniel, Henrik, Kesler, Bieksa, Hamhuis, Ballard. It other words, $30.5 million in salary. Every single one of these guys will take a pay cut when if they resign, due to either age or being Keith Ballard. That equals a lot of cap room.

In addition to that, paying Schneider instead of Luongo will likely cut costs at least in the short term, and it all comes full-circle. All this financial freedom would allow the Canucks to dip into free agency or take on salary in a trade if necessary. If production up front becomes an issue, the means will be there to fix it.

Trading Luongo could also be very useful to the cause, if Gillis can get the right kind of return. The rumours are Vancouver can expect a mid-first-round draft pick or an average prospect in a deal, potentially more or less, depending if Gillis can turn negotiations into a bidding war. If the front office plays its cards right, Louie could bring back a couple more youngsters to the depth chart.

That means avoiding the Luongo-for-Lecavalier type move (as if that were possible). More realistically, adding a Ryan Malone would certainly help the team in the next couple years, but if Vancouver is serious about contending year-in-year-out, they need to get younger.

That means no betting the farm on the next couple seasons. Would you rather have two years with 5-to-1 odds of a Cup, or ten years at 10-to-1? Cory Schneider between the pipes makes the latter a legitimate threat. If the Canucks have an opportunity to take a step back today and reap the rewards tomorrow, they would be fools not to take it.

Playoff Predictions 2012

Regular Season Standings Prediction

As the NHL officially enters the stretch drive, here is how I think the standings will stack up by the end of the regular season. Explanations below.

 Western Conference

1. Detroit
2. Vancouver
3. San Jose
4. St. Louis
5. Nashville
6. Phoenix
7. Chicago
8. Los Angeles

Eastern Conference

1. New York Rangers
2. Boston
3. Washington
4. Pittsburgh
5. Philadelphia
6. New Jersey
7. Ottawa
8. Florida

Beginning in the west, the most blaring pick in these standings is Detroit finishing on top. The vast majority of readers are Canucks fans, so projecting second place will understandably raise some eyebrows. Let's be reasonable. The comparison between the two juggernauts is oh-so-close; their last two meetings were separated by a lousy shootout goal each.

If you can get past all the drama of the streak-breaking victory at the Joe, Detroit came within 16 seconds of taking a four-point stranglehold on the conference, a lead that they would have probably kept and expanded on riding the momentum of a 3-2 victory. And they would have done this without the services of Pavel Datsyuk, arguably the best player in the game right now.

The Red Wings are very, very good. In fact, if the league did not hand out those God-forsaken loser points for overtime losses, the Canucks would still be four points back of the Wings. Not to say that Detroit would destroy Vancouver in a playoff match-up, or even that the Red Wings are the superior team. But with Datsyuk returning a month shy of season's end, they have the edge in what will be an exciting race to the finish.

President's Trophy race aside, the lone team that sneaks into the playoffs in this theoretical is the LA Kings, beating out the Stars for eighth place. It has been a rough season in Hollywood, and the team has been up and down since Darryl Sutter took over. 

The difference maker is Jeff Carter. The acquisition of Mike Richards former line-mate is beneficial, if nothing else, in the short-term for a team whose downfall has been a lack of scoring. The Dallas defence is too porous to be a playoff team. LA makes up the single point.

The ultra-safe predictions continue in the east; all eight teams in the playoff picture today stay there in mid-April. In other words, both the Capitals and Panthers qualify for the post-season, while the Maple Leafs do not.

Not to worry, this bold showing of cowardice is justified. The closest team to a spot is the Winnipeg Jets, a single point behind Washington, but with two fewer games left on their schedule. More on them later. The next in pursuit are the Toronto Maple Leafs, four points behind, followed by the Lighting and Sabres at five back. All are decent squads, all are held back by the same issue: goaltending. Such wide gaps cannot be made up without consistency from the netminder.

Consequently, the Winnipeg Jets are involved in a Southeast race for the last couple playoff spots. Here's the catch, one of those is the third seed thanks to the current division structure. Regardless, between the Panthers, Capitals, and Jets, two will win a ticket to the post-season.

A look at this prediction shows Washington in the third spot, which many may scoff at. However, despite their troubles, the Capitals are still a very talented team. A little adversity in the form of a playoff chase may be exactly what Ovie and the boys need to get their act together. They are still a good bet to take the Southeast Division.

That leaves a duel between Winnipeg and Florida for their playoff lives. As of today, March 1st, Florida has a dominant lead of four points with three games in hand. Interestingly, tonight's showdown between these two sides could see the Jets draw within a couple. Of course, the Panthers could just as easily make it a landslide. All things considered, Winnipeg does not have the talent to climb this mountain in such a limited amount of time; Florida should hold on to eighth place.

The rest of the Eastern Conference is just a matter of teams exchanging seeds, with the New York remaining on top. Not much to it: the Rangers are just too good to blow a five-plus point lead, even with the elite Penguins and Bruins on their heels.

Looking over the forecast, I would certainly hope these standings pan out. They would produce some very interesting playoff series'. The four vs. five in the east would be the historic battle of Pennsylvania, while in the same matchup in the west would see two of the most promising young franchises, the Predators and the Blues, duke it out in what would be a physical, nasty, epic series.

And finally, for all you Canucks homers, this scenario would also see Vancouver play the Chicago Blackhawks for the fourth consecutive year. Needless to say, that would be pretty intense.

Kassian Perfect Fit for Canucks

As Vancouver recovers from the shock of the Cody Hodgson trade, it is obvious that this was a truly emotional move made by the Canucks. Angry callers ranted on local radio stations, while many others silently mourned the loss of the youngster they had fallen in love with over the last five months.

Coming back the other way is Zack Kassian, a young power forward who had been playing his rookie season for the Buffalo Sabres. A year younger, he is nowhere near the development of Hodgson.

There is understandably the fear that this will be a repeat of Neely-for-Peterson, the deal that saw the Canucks ship out a future Hall-of-Famer for a guy whose name would be forgotten if not for his part in this very trade.

Comparing Hodgson to Cam Neely is premature to say the least. Even more unfair is calling Kassian another Barry Peterson. It is easy to write off this unfamiliar name as an inferior talent, but this great unknown boasts a ceiling every inch as high as Hodgson’s.

Zack Kassian was drafted 13^th overall in the 2009 draft. He is widely considered to be the cream of the prospect crop when it comes to power forwards. Scouts portray him as an extremely complete player, with imposing size and strength and a willingness to throw punches, while possessing uncharacteristically soft hands and exceptional skating ability.

He showed off his abilities largely while playing for the OHL dynasty Windsor Spitfires. After joining them during the 2009/10 season, Kassian was an impactful piece in the second of back-to-back Memorial Cup championships for Windsor.

This is where he begins to separate himself from Cody Hodgson. His tough, gritty game contrasts the finesse of Hodgson. There is no player in the Vancouver Canucks organization like Zack Kassian. And while he may not be ready by then, there is a hope that he will help the Canucks this spring to fill the void that was so exploited by the Boston Bruins a year ago.

The Vancouver fan base has been begging management to toughen up their squad. Instead of a Band-Aid rental player, Gillis went for the Cadillac of gritty young stars. It should be seen as a success, but it seems nobody was prepared for the price the Canucks would have to pay.

Cody Hodgson was the oasis in the desert that is the Canucks’ farm system. He was the next Trevor Linden, the one who would lead Vancouver through the next era of prosperity. He was someone you could build a franchise around.

For such ridiculous dreams, it is amazing how widespread these notions are in the wake of his departure. In their fury they overlook the fact that Kassian is even more capable of meeting such expectations.

Zack Kassian is definitely not a sure thing. There is a substantial chance that he could be a bust. However, it is exactly this heavy risk that works in this favour. Hodgson is a safe bet, he will not disappear, but he does not have the same upside that Kassian does. Kassian’s potential calibre has a significantly wider range, including a higher ceiling.

That ceiling would look a lot like a Milan Lucic, which should have Canuck Nation salivating. People talk about changing the team’s culture; becoming bigger, nastier, a club that nobody would mess with. Zack Kassian is the kind of player who is capable of that kind of impact. If he hits his potential, the Canucks will be able to build a very impressive team around him down the road.

Yes, Gillis did make this move for the present. A big part of this decision was improving Vancouvers chances in 2011. Just do not confuse that with being short-sighted. Kassian may contribute to a post-season run this year, but he has the ability to help the Canucks to many more deep runs at the Stanley Cup after the Luongo-Sedin era is long gone.

A Cody Hodgson team would be a skill team, much like the one of today, bound for regular season success, and not much else. With Zack Kassian as a cornerstone of the franchise, Vancouver could be a team built for the playoffs.

Everyone Hates the Canucks, Deal With It

You’ve heard it by now. The media, the polls, the rants by the immaculately wise fans, about how the Vancouver Canucks are the most hated team in the league. Inspired by the diving, whining, and high flying hits in the 2011 playoff run, supporters on the West Coast have had to put up with a lot of flak.

Born out of that is the war of words that has been raging since April of last year. There are only two powers: Canucks fans, and “other”. In coffee shops and offices the discussions consist of the regular polite small talk with a little kick. Online, however, people tend to be a considerably more courageous. Personal attacks and call-outs between guys who will never so much as look each other in the eye are run-of-the-mill on chat rooms and forums.

Why?

Is there really a need to defend so valiantly the pride of the organization? After all, the razzing from around the hockey world is nothing new to successful clubs. There is no team that has followed a superb regular season by a deep post-season run who has ever avoided the same type of hatred Vancouver received.

The source of the real problem is the way Canucks fans have handled the remarks. The standard method has always been to ignore. Most often these attacks are brushed off with a quiet pride, knowing the hatred is born out of suffering.

This approach is usually taken by fans of historically great teams. They have grown used to winning, and the harassment that comes with it. When followers of a struggling rival come calling, they know the drill.

Vancouver, as their fans have heard repeatedly, is not one of those franchises. The famed 40-year drought has been littered with painfully irrelevant teams. Many of today’s supporters have spent much of their lives playing second fiddle (more like fifth) to the powerful Flames and Oilers squads of the eighties. The BC natives were the ones giving to the Albertans in bars, rather than the other way around.

Now, for the first time in their lives, the Canucks have spent the past couple seasons as serious contenders. And they are loving it.

People who have endured so long with absolutely nothing to brag about finally have just that. Suddenly, four decades worth of pride has come out in less than a year. Inevitably, the smack talk has been massively overdone. Even the normally classy audience at Roger’s Arena has turned into an anthem-booing mess. Canuck Nation has been given the unshakable reputation of arrogance. And there is nothing fans sick of losing hate more that arrogance.

As a result, these non-playoff supporters have turned unreasonably harsh on Vancouver. Their insults are nastier, and they dig deeper for dirt about the actual players. The Canucks, on ice actions are more scrutinized that those of any other team. Every single incident is blown out of proportion, and guys like Burrows and LaPierre have been turned into rats.

However, anyone without a clear bias (not many) can see that the Canucks are among the least suspended teams in the NHL. Some like to spin this fact, claiming the league is soft towards Vancouver. The reasons for this favouratism are always different, depending on who you ask, but the common denominator is that they are all baseless.

Nonetheless, these conspiracy theories only add fuel to the fire; they are conveniently adopted as fact. Canucks fans, instead of realizing how silly this talk is, let it agitate them into heated arguments. The reputation worsens, the haters get angrier, they find more dirt, and Vancouverites retaliate, doing even more damage to their own image. Such is the vicious cycle of ignorance.

This commotion is made more ridiculous is the fact that the actual athletes are seemingly indifferent. While fans are lapping up the hype the media is serving up, opposing players are continuing their business-as-usual approach.

With the obvious exception of the once-a-year Canucks-Bruins matchup, the “most hated team in the league” does not generally receive a lot of the cheap shots and rough play a truly despised group would expect. Even yesterday’s archrival Chicago Blackhawks have never given Vancouver an abnormally hard time in a regular season game.

In this case, the cliché is true: rivalries are for fans. If looked at beyond the first glance, the notion of other players hating Vancouver’s appears artificial. The animosity that is supposed to be sparking these heated debates does not actually exist, which makes this whole thing even sillier.

Rather than dwelling on fabricated anger towards their team, Canucks fans would be better off taking the high road. Just as those more used to winning ways have done, it must be realized that “haters gonna hate.”

These arguments cannot be won. No Toronto Maple Leafs fan is going to read a post and go,” You know what, he’s right. I’m gonna convert to a Canucks fan right away.” Somehow people still put up a fight, holding on to slim hopes of changing their adversaries’ minds. Beyond that prayer, there is no point in satisfying their hunger to get under Vancouver’s skin.

They simply have to accept that they will take some verbal abuse, and be glad to know the better man will have playoff hockey to watch.

Obviously it is unlikely the entire Canucks fan base will all of a sudden decide to be classy. Understandably, it is not easy to take a ribbing with dignity, or even without cursing them out. However, Vancouver is enjoying the most prosperous years they are likely to have in a long time. Rather than wasting the good years endlessly bashing the doubters, why not rationalize and enjoy the ride.

Then again, we are hockey fans. When did people start expecting us to be rational?

Salo Lost in Suspension Bickering

The low-bridge hit in Saturday morning’s game was less about Marchand than it was about Salo.

The 37-year-old Canucks defenseman suffered a concussion after a questionable hip check by Boston winger Brad Marchand, although it is doubtful that was the only upper body injury he sustained. Sami Salo seemed also to be favouring his left should while being followed off the ice by trainer Mike Burnstein.

The hit happened as a loose puck was drifting up the boards in the Boston end. Salo pinched from the blue line to race Marchand for possession. Marchand reached the puck first, motioned as if to clear the zone, and then out of nowhere dropped to take Salo’s knees from underneath him.

Most would agree that it was a dirty hit, the real debate being to what degree. NHL Head Disciplinarian Brendan Shanahan weighed in with a five-game suspension for Marchand. Excessive, as is nearly all supplementary discipline this season, but relative to Shanahan’s standards, five makes sense.

Of course, Vancouver fans will lobby for more, while the Bruins base will wonder why this “clean” hit was even penalized, and some keeners will go to the usual lengths of comparing similar plays from the past, which are not really similar at all. No matter what Shanny does, no one will be happy.

However, the focus of this entire incident has been on the offender, not the victim. The blow to Salo hurts more than his shoulder. It has been nearly eight years since he last played greater than 70 games in a regular season. Halfway through this campaign, he had only missed four games.

It finally seemed that luck was going his way. Then his new-found health was dashed by a cheap shot, and the normally even-keel Salo suddenly burst into frustration, tossing his stick into the glass, refusing to be helped off the ice. Realizing Salo was hurt yet again, many watching in their living rooms did the same to their remotes.

You can’t help but feel for the guy. He is the epitome of blue-collar. With his slap shot power diminishing, he has worked hard to improve his defensive game. His contributions in his own end have quietly been priceless for the Vancouver Canucks, as shown by the highly publicized statistics concerning their play without Salo in the lineup. In this year’s version, they are 1-4 when he is injured.

He is nothing but class, always taking the high road, a behavior fast disappearing in the Canucks organization. You can bet the farm Sami Salo will not be bashing Marchand in the press.

Unfortunately, the story of Salo’s career has been one of bad things happening to a good person. From the legendary snake-bite in his native Finland, to the endless list of injuries he has endured, he has had to put up with more trouble than anybody deserves much less a man of Salo’s character. And that’s before the Brad Marchand incident.

Naturally, his struggle will be simply subtext to the jawing by both clubs’ management (and some players, too.) One can only hope than maturity will somehow set in, and these men will realize that it’s not about Alain, or Claude. Not Alex, or Brad, or Maxim. It’s about Sami, and it’s about respect.